By Annunthra Rangan
Over the past two weeks, rebel forces have captured key cities, including Aleppo, Homs and Damascus, effectively ending Assad’s reign. The regime’s stronghold in the Latakia region, Qardaha—home to the Assad family mausoleum—was seized, and its once-invincible symbols of power, including statues and portraits of the Assad family, were torn down by jubilant citizens celebrating their new-found freedom. The rebel offensive, which began on November 27, met little resistance as government forces crumbled under pressure. Assad, once supported by international allies such as Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, fled Syria and is believed to have sought asylum in Russia. The collapse of the Assad regime marks the end of a civil war that has devastated the nation, claiming over 5,00,000 lives and displacing millions more.
While much of Syria now lies under rebel control, significant challenges remain. The northwest of the country, already home to over four million displaced people, remains a volatile and contested region. The governance of the country is uncertain, with the rebellion’s leadership, particularly Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s (HTS) leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani pledging to create a government that is inclusive of Syria’s diverse sects and social classes. However, questions linger about the future of Syria’s territorial integrity and the complexity of its divided factions, including Turkish-backed groups and Kurdish militias.
The conflict has also prompted Israel to take a more assertive stance. Over the past few days, Israeli forces have launched an extensive air campaign against Syrian military assets, successfully degrading Syria’s military infrastructure. The Israel Defense Forces carried out over 350 air and naval strikes, targeting fighter aircraft, radar systems, naval vessels, and weapons stockpiles, reducing Syria’s military capacity by an estimated 70-80 percent. In addition, Israeli ground forces have moved into the Golan Heights and taken strategic positions, including Mount Hermon, which provides a critical vantage point over southern Syria. Israel has described this operation as an effort to establish a “sterile defense zone” to ensure security along its northern border.
On December 8, Syria experienced a yet again monumental political shift as Mohammed al-Bashir, a prominent figure from the Opposition-held northwest, was appointed caretaker prime minister of an interim government. Bashir, who led the rebel-held Salvation Government, was sworn in with the backing of a coalition of forces that successfully ousted Assad.
Bashir’s government has committed to establishing a transitional leadership by March 1, with a focus on ensuring a peaceful handover of power. His televised statement, made in the presence of both the Opposition and former regime representatives, highlighted the intent to establish a broad-based government, signifying the necessity of inclusive governance in Syria’s uncertain future.
The collapse of the Assad regime was the result of a combination of internal and external factors. Syria’s economy, once heavily dependent on the illicit trade of Captagon, was in freefall, exacerbating the regime’s difficulties. Widespread desertions and defections from the military, coupled with an increasingly demoralized armed forces, paved the way for a rapid collapse. The fall of the Assad dynasty also reflects broader shifts in international support. While Assad once relied on military and financial assistance from Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, the changing geopolitical realities—such as Russia’s focus on the conflict in Ukraine and Israel’s sustained airstrikes on Iranian assets—left the Syrian regime isolated.
The HTS, under the leadership of Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, has been preparing for a confrontation in Aleppo for months. Once part of the al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra, the HTS has transformed into a more nationalist faction, focusing on state-building rather than global jihad. Jolani, who has long outmanoeuvred rivals within both the Islamic State and al-Qaeda, now leads an organization that controls large swathes of northern Syria. HTS’s transformation from a rebel group to a more pragmatic and regionally focused entity mirrors the broader changes in global perceptions of militant groups. Jolani, observing the international engagement with the Taliban in Afghanistan, aims to position HTS as a similar force capable of securing legitimacy on the world stage. His strategies of governance, including efforts to regulate essential services and manage local affairs, have been recognized as part of a broader shift toward technocratic Salafism.
Turkey has played a critical role in the current phase of the conflict. Turkish-backed factions, including the Syrian National Army (SNA), launched simultaneous offensives “Repelling Aggression” and “Dawn of Freedom”—targeting regime-held areas in Aleppo. In less than a week, these forces captured key military and industrial positions in Aleppo, including the Kuweires air base and vital power plants. This offensive, combined with minimal resistance from Syrian forces, also led to a dramatic shift in the balance of power. Turkey’s involvement in the operation was influenced by several factors, including the collapse of diplomatic efforts to reconcile with Damascus and the shift in the geopolitical landscape, particularly in relation to US policy in Syria. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s strategy is also shaped by a desire to strengthen Turkey’s bargaining position with both the United States and Russia. Russia, which had long supported Assad, has been preoccupied with its ongoing war in Ukraine. This diversion of resources has limited Russia’s ability to provide substantial assistance to the Syrian regime, leaving Assad’s forces unable to mount an effective defence against the rebellion. Russian forces have also reduced their military presence in Syria, pulling back both personnel and advanced air defence systems.
The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime marks the end of a brutal era in Syria, but the road ahead remains fraught with uncertainty. The country is deeply fragmented, with regional powers like Turkey, the US, Russia, and Iran continuing to exert influence over different parts of the country. As the interim government takes shape, the need for a Syrian-led, peaceful political process has never been more urgent. With millions displaced and the country in ruins, the international community must now work to support Syria’s recovery and ensure that the mistakes of the past are not repeated.
The evolving political landscape in Syria could have significant implications for India’s relations with the country and the broader Middle East region. India has emphasized the need for all parties to work towards preserving Syria’s unity, sovereignty, and territorial integrity, advocating for a peaceful, Syrian-led political process that respects the diverse aspirations of the Syrian people. India and Syria have maintained strong ties, marked by regular high-level exchanges since the establishment of diplomatic relations. While India has condemned violence from both the Assad regime and Opposition rebels, it has consistently supported Syria on international issues such as the Palestinian cause and Syria’s claim over the Golan Heights. In return, Syria has backed India’s position on Kashmir, asserting it as an internal matter for India.
India’s stance at the United Nations has been consistent, with New Delhi opposing sanctions against Syria and calling for the relaxation of such measures during the Covid-19 pandemic due to humanitarian concerns. Even during Syria’s civil war, India maintained its diplomatic presence in Damascus and upheld its commitment to a non-military, inclusive resolution to the conflict. India has also contributed to Syria’s development, with key investments including a USD 240 million line of credit for a power plant, collaborations in IT infrastructure, steel plant modernization, and the oil sector, along with significant exports of rice, pharmaceuticals, and textiles.
Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India renewed its bilateral ties with Syria, particularly after the country rejoined the Arab League in 2023. A notable ministerial visit to Damascus was made in July 2023 by then-Minister of State for External Affairs, V Muraleedharan.
India has significant investments in Syria’s oil sector, including a 2004 agreement between ONGC and IPR International for oil and gas exploration, along with a joint venture involving ONGC and China’s CNPC to acquire a 37 percent stake in a Canadian firm operating in Syria. Additionally, India’s investments in the Tishreen Thermal Power Plant and sectors like IT and fertilizers are crucial for its commercial engagements in the region.
India is also reportedly looking to invest in the creation of a corridor connecting India, the Gulf, the Suez Canal, the Mediterranean, and Europe, which includes Syria. This closer engagement with Damascus positions India to leverage stronger relations with other Middle Eastern countries. New Delhi’s recent evacuation of 75 nationals from Syria, including 44 stranded in Saida Zainab, also highlights the ongoing humanitarian concerns as the conflict enters a new phase.
With Turkey backing the Opposition rebels, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is likely to play an increasingly significant role in the region’s political dynamics. Notably, Erdogan recently refrained from raising the Kashmir issue at the United Nations, signalling a shift in Turkey’s position, which could potentially improve India-Turkey relations. As Syria’s political landscape remains uncertain with a fractured rebel coalition, India will continue to monitor developments closely. The changing situation may require India to adjust its approach in response to the emerging realities in Syria.
—The writer is a Senior Research Officer at Chennai Centre for China Studies. Her research interests constitute China-WANA (West Asia and North Africa) relations and human rights
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