By Vikram Kilpady
For decades, South India prided itself on reining in population growth through successful family planning campaigns. Today, the very states that led India’s population control efforts are now urging newlyweds and young couples to have more children—and urgently.
Tamil Nadu Chief Minister MK Stalin, following similar appeals from Andhra Pradesh CM N Chandrababu Naidu and Karnataka Deputy CM DK Shivakumar, has asked couples to stop delaying childbirth. The reason: delimitation—the long-delayed exercise that will redraw Lok Sabha constituencies based on population. With southern states’ population growth slowing, they stand to lose parliamentary seats to the booming Hindi belt. For the South, the message is clear—have more babies or risk losing political power.
A NORTH-SOUTH DIVIDE
In the late 1980s and 1990s, India celebrated its impending demographic dividend—the potential economic boost from a young and growing population. But today, that dividend is more like a failed crop, ravaged by uneven progress. Southern states industrialized earlier, achieved lower birth rates, and improved their per capita indices. Northern states, by contrast, still grapple with soaring populations and development deficits.
This population disparity lies at the heart of the 2026 delimitation debate, especially in Tamil Nadu. Delimitation—the process of redistributing Lok Sabha seats based on population—was originally meant to ensure fair representation for growing populations within the existing cap of 550 MPs (currently 542 elected seats). Article 82 of the Constitution mandates delimitation after every Census.
THE DELIMITATION FREEZE
Delimitation took place after the 1951, 1961, and 1971 Censuses. But in 1976, during the Emergency, the Indira Gandhi government froze the process for 25 years to give states with higher fertility rates time to catch up. When the freeze ended in 2001, the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government extended it for another 25 years after the 2002 delimitation—again to protect laggard northern states. Now, with 2026 approaching, the freeze is set to thaw. Since the 2021 Census was delayed due to Covid-19, reports suggest the new constituency map may rely on projected 2026 population figures rather than actual Census data. The new Parliament building, capable of seating 888 MPs, hints at a possible expansion in the number of seats.
THE RSS POSITION
The RSS has long acknowledged this north-south imbalance. In July 2024, Organiser, the RSS mouthpiece, noted that southern and western states fear losing seats due to better population control. RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat has called for a national population policy since 2022, one that applies equally across all communities and regions. Bhagwat has even warned that unchecked population imbalances have caused the creation of new nations, citing examples like South Sudan and Kosovo.
PROJECTED SEAT SHIFTS
Population projections for 2026 paint a stark picture. According to conservative estimates, Uttar Pradesh’s 80 Lok Sabha seats could swell to 143, Bihar’s 40 could become 79, and Madhya Pradesh could gain 23 new seats for a total of 52. In contrast, Tamil Nadu may gain just 10 seats (from 39 to 49), Kerala might remain stagnant at 20, and Karnataka could rise modestly from 28 to 41. The overall effect could see the Hindi belt gain at least 15 seats—at the expense of the South. There are other estimates that skew the figures further. This looming imbalance has stoked fears of political disempowerment in the South, which already complains that it doesn’t receive its fair share of central revenues, including GST collections.
THE NEP BATTLE AND LANGUAGE WARS
The delimitation debate coincides with a bitter dispute between Tamil Nadu and the central government over education funding. Tamil Nadu’s refusal to implement the National Education Policy (NEP) 2020—which mandates a three-language formula—has led the centre to withhold Rs 573 crore under the Samagra Shiksha Abhiyan. Tamil Nadu, which follows a two-language policy (Tamil and English), sees NEP’s push for a third language as Hindi imposition.
Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan insists Hindi is not being imposed, arguing the NEP allows two regional languages plus English. But in reality, parents in Tamil Nadu see it as a Hobson’s choice—Hindi would dominate because it offers far more job opportunities across India than Telugu, Kannada, or Malayalam. Critics say this so-called “choice” is actually coercion.
MK Stalin, in a blistering reply to Pradhan, warned that Hindi hegemony has already erased indigenous languages like Maithili, Rajasthani, and Kauravi in the northern plains. He vowed that Tamil would never suffer the same fate—no matter how much central funding is withheld.
A PRE-ELECTION POWDER KEG
With Tamil Nadu Assembly elections due in 2026, Stalin has seized on delimitation and Hindi imposition as rallying cries.
These twin issues could energize the DMK base and potentially offset the party’s internal struggles over dynastic succession.
Even the AIADMK, despite its openness to alliances, won’t publicly yield on Tamil pride or delimitation.
The BJP’s aggressive rhetoric against the DMK, Stalin, and Tamil primacy could backfire, alienating voters. The entry of Tamil superstar Vijay’s party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, adds further unpredictability to the 2026 race, but the language issue could become the DMK’s trump card.
THE ROAD AHEAD
Any political consensus on delimitation would be exceedingly difficult. The ideological chasm between the DMK and the BJP-RSS ecosystem leaves little room for negotiation. For the centre, managing this firestorm will require tact and statesmanship—not just the heavy-handed tactics Delhi often employs.
As former Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao famously said: “Not taking any decisions is in itself a decision.” But history warns against following Rao’s maxim here. His infamous indecision paved the way for the demolition of the Babri Masjid.
The safest option for now? The centre could freeze Lok Sabha seat allocation for another 25 years. That would buy time for the northern states to improve their population control, while giving southern states temporary reassurance. But whether that happens—or whether Tamil Nadu, led by Stalin, chooses to escalate the fight—remains to be seen.
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